How did the A-League vote?

morrisonsoccer

Prime Minister Scott Morrison heads a soccer ball at Manson Park in Bellevue Heights near Adelaide, Tuesday, April 23, 2019. (AAP Image/Mick Tsikas)

So the election has been run and won.  Some football fans either will feel gutted that their team, which was the favourite, made the opportunity to win slip away, while others will be elated that their team won despite all the pundits were predicting otherwise.

But if we look at the A-League how the electoral pattern looks?  Here is a totally unscientific analysis.  I am a card carrying lefty and yes, my biases will show in this post (What the heck, this is my blog, I am no journalist and I am not getting paid for this.)

I will be going from north to south following the coast.

Brisbane Roar

Brisbane Roar represents the whole metropolitan area of Brisbane.  Let’s start with Suncorp Stadium which is in the seat of Brisbane.  This must be the only seat representing a city centre which is not left, being held by Trevor Evans by the Liberals.  The ALP which got a small swing of less than 1%.

Lilley was a disaster for the ALP with a primary swing against it of -7.73%.  Not sure whether this seat, which was held by the now retired Wayne Swan will be retained by Labor.  Despite GetUp Dutton held Dickson easily (in fact got a sizeable swing towards him)

Fortunately one of my favourite MPs, Terri Butler held Griffith comfortably. If I had to move to Brisbane I want to live in Bulimba.

Ryan was also retained by the ALP comfortably.  While Moreton has a 2% swing against the ALP, but it was retained by Labor.

The map below shows the swings.  Red towards the ALP and Blue towards the Coalition.

Brisbane2019
From Nathan Ruser @Nrg8000

Newcastle Jets

The seat of Newcastle remained rock solid ALP where 64% 2PP went to Labor.  Paterson had a strong swing against the ALP of more than 5% (I suspect on UAP preferences) but was able to retain it.  Big swing against the ALP in Shortland as well (again here UAP polled about 4% that would have helped the Coalition, but retained by the ALP.

The unmitigated disaster for the Labor Party was Hunter, the seat held by Joel Fitzgibbon. The ALP had a 2PP -9.71% swing against it and the One Nation had a whopping +21.66 swing towards it with the candidate, Stuart Bond, looking like an MMA fighter.r0_0_2223_1381_w1200_h678_fmax

Central Coast Mariners

Gosford is in the seat of Robertson.  The Liberals retained this seat comfortably with a swing towards it of 3.35%

Sydney FC

Again Sydney is a big place.  So we can start where the Sydney FC offices and Allianz Stadium are in Moore Park which is in the seat of Wentworth.   This of course was Malcolm Turnbull’s seat that was won by the independent Kerryn Phelphs in a by-election but now won back by the Liberals with Dave Sharma.

Apart from that inner Sydney has remained ALP as expected. Sydney, Grayndler (Albo’s seat) stayed with the ALP.  While North Sydney stayed Liberal.  The big shock was Warringah where Tony Abbott lost to the independent Zali Steggall.

Western Sydney Wanderers

Western Sydney has been seen for some time as the place where the elections get won and lost.  Where the battlers are (now called quiet Australians apparently).

In the seat where the stadium is, Parramatta, The ALP retained the seat albeit with a 2PP swing against it of -4.22%.

Then I get into trouble to identify where  ‘Western Sydney; starts or finish.  Mitchell was retained by the Liberals easily. Blaxland stayed Labor.  McMahon held by Chris Bowen stayed Labor but had a substantial swing away of -5.51%.  Disconcertingly One Nation got a swing towards it of 8.22%

Macarthur FC

It is difficult to pinpoint the catchment area of these new teams.  When I hear its proponents it seems to be a bit of a moveable feast.  The new A League team of Macarthur FC is based in Campbelltown which is in the seat of …surprise! Macarthur which was retained by Labor.  Werriwa to the north was also retained by the ALP, while Hume and Hughes by the Liberals. Cunningham stayed with Labor.

Cook, well, of course, is our Prime Minister’s seat.

macarthur

The story of this election, especially in Sydney is even the wealthy north Sydney suburb swung to the ALP, while the west and the far south to the Coalition.

Sydney2019From Nathan Ruser @Nrg8000

Melbourne Victory

Again Melbourne is a big place.  But if we take AAMI Park and Marvel Stadium as a base it is the City of Melbourne which is in the seat of Melbourne which was easily retained by Adam Bandt of the Greens.

Melbourne City

Melbourne City is based in the northern suburb of Bundoora which is split into three seats, Cooper, Jagajaga and Scullin. All three comfortably retained by the ALP.

Western United

This new team in the A-League has been dubbed ‘Tarneit United’ because of its plans to build a new stadium in what is now an empty paddock in Tarneit west of Melbourne.

Tarneit is in Lalor, a safe Labor seat.  Although this time it got a 2PP -1.89% against it, probably because Clive Palmer’s UAP got +4.71.

Western United sees its footprint all alongside the west of Melbourne, from the sea to the mountains.  It’s a pretty big area.

WesternMelbourne

Gorton is another safe Labor seat but also got a swing against it of 2PP -3.13% But the primaries for the sitting member Brendan O’Connor crashed to a -11.25% again probably because votes went to Clive again (+7.72%) and the independent Jarrod Bingham who got a big swing of +9.47 who is a catcher and relocator of local snakes.  Corio is also a safe seat and got a small swing towards it. Similar for Ballarat.  Corangamite was one of the most marginal seats in Australia and was one of the few (if any?) Labor gains, although it will remain extremely marginal.

One feature of safe ALP seats like Lalor, Gorton and Corio is that Clive Palmer’s UAP party got substantial swings between 4 to 5%, what’s happening there!

In any case, Melbourne has remained fairly Labor which at least was a bit of a consolation for me after the elections’ result.

MelbourneElections2019From Nathan Ruser @Nrg8000

Adelaide United

Cooper Stadium is commonly known as Hindmarsh Stadium because of its location and is located in the seat of Adelaide which was easily retained by Labor, but the Greens got a significant primary swing of more than 5%.

Hindmarsh stayed with the ALP. Sturt remained Liberal, Making stayed ALP.  Boothby stayed Liberal but with its redistribution which gained Glenelg probably got more left votes as it swung to the ALP and Greens.

Overall it seems that Adelaide maintained pretty much the status quo.  There swings to the ALP in seats it already held.

Adelaide
From Nathan Ruser @Nrg8000

Perth Glory

HBF Park is situated in the seat of Perth which is a safe ALP seat.  But overall Perth again shows some traditional Liberal strongholds swinging towards Labor, but not enough to make a difference.

Curtin got a big 2PP swing to the ALP of +5.51% but it remains a safe Liberal seat.  This could be because the Julie Bishop wasn’t running and the voters for the independent Louise Stewart must have given their preferences mainly to Labor.

Stirling remains Liberal, as did Swan (pity that Beazley’s daughter, where her father used to hold this seat hardly made any shift) I am personally pleased that Anne Aly retained Cowan for the ALP, considering all the crap islamophobes threw at her in the past three years.  But is a bit of a bittersweet result as while her 2PP went down by only -0.14%  the islamophobic One Nation primary vote went up by not an insignificant +5.54%

Perth

From Nathan Ruser @Nrg8000

 

Not all areas are represented in this football democracy

One thing that comes out of this analysis is that big important area like Wollongong, Northern Queensland, Tasmania, and of course where our parliament is located, Canberra are not represented. But that is another story.

canberra

Canberra United logo by Michael Taylor

 

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