Tag Archives: Elections

Col sistema australiano Pisapia sarebbe già sindaco.

In alcuni casi ho cercato di spiegare il sistema preferenziale per eleggere rappresentanti in Australia a persone italiane, ma spesso non sono riuscito a spiagare bene come funziona.  Per curiositá ho deciso di guardare i risultati ufficiali delle elezioni per sindaco di Milano.  Gli elettori milanesi sono andati alle urne il 15 e 16 di maggio, ma dato che nessun candidato è riuscito a raggiungere una maggiorità assoluta devono ritornare ancora per un ballottaggio tra i due candidati che hanno preso piú voti il 29 e 30 maggio.  Come australiano, la cosa che vedo subito è che con un sistema preferenziale tipo usato in Australia la cosa si potrebbe risolvere in colpo solo.

Allora come funziona il sistema australiano?  Nella scheda ci sono tutti i candidati.  Gli elettori devono semplicemente indicare la loro preferenza da uno in poi.

Facciamo uin esempio con le elezioni milanesi.  La scheda sarebbe cosíL’ordine dei candidati viene deciso da un sorteggio prima di stampare le schede.  L’elettore esprime in ordine di preferenza i candidati, con uno il più favorito poi due, tre e cosí via.  Un candidato di centro sinistra probabilmente avrebbe votato cosí (ovviamente non essendo in Italia, o a Milano potrei essermi sbagliato delle preferenze di un votante di centro sinistra, mi scuso se ho fatto delle preferenze sbagliate).

Vedendo i risultati delle elezioni a Milano potrei dire che il 48,04% di elettori avrebbero messo il numero uno accanto il nome di Pisapia.

Ma vediamo cosa avrebbe potuto fare un’elettore che ha messo come preferenza il movimento di Beppe Grillo (che immagino sia piú a sinistra)

Calise ha preso 3,22% del voto, perció si potrebbe dedurre che questa percentuale di coloro che hanno preferito questo candidato avrebbe messo uno nella sua casella.  Ma con il sistema preferenziale all’australiana, questo voto non viene messo a parte.  Dato che Calise non ha preso più del 50% dei voti (e perció non ha avuto la maggioranza assoluta), questo voto viene assegnato al candidato che ha ottenuto la seconda preferenza (cioè il ‘2’) che sarebbe Pisapia.  Mettiamo il caso che tutti coloro che hanno messo Calise come prima preferenza, hanno poi dato Pisapia la loro seconda preferenza succederebbe che il 3,22% di questi voti vadano al candidato del centro sinistra.

Perció 48,04 + 3.22 = 51.26%.  Pisapia ha la maggioranza e viene eletto sindaco.

Nelle elezioni australiane tutte le pereferenze vengono distribuite.  Perció (anche qui facciamo delle premesse, ma è per fare un esempio) la Moratti probabilmente prenderebbe preferenze da coloro che hanno votato Pagliarini (0,64%) o Mantovani (0,35 ). Non so bene dove i voti di Palmeri (5,54%) sarebbero andati (dato che sono di centro)  ma mettiamo il caso peggiore che siano andati tutti alla Moratti, non sarebbero stati sufficienti per farla eleggere sindaco (41,58 + 5,54 + 0,64 + 0,35) = 48.11%.

La Commissione Elettorale Australiana ha fatto un filmetto su come funziona questo sistema visualmente.


Ovviamente non tutti gli elettori seguono un ordine di preferenza politicamente costante.  É possibile che un’elettore che mette come prima preferenza il  Partito Comunista dei Lavoratori poi mette la Lega come seconda preferenza.  Ma con questo sistema nessun voto viene sprecato.  Elimina ballottaggi dato che gli elettori devono esprimere una preferenza una volta sola, non al secondo turno, e nella maggior parte dei casi elegge un candidato con i maggior consensi degli elettori.

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Media obsession?

I have been trying to hide beneath a rock recently trying to ignore the possibility of  and Abbott government although it is not easy.  The worst is reading comments from the mainstream press online, as it seems the Liberal Party has placed Young Liberals to basically spend most of their time to write anti-Labor, pro-Liberal comments.  So I sought refuge amongst the posts at Pollbludger where it seems it is visited almost all by Labor supporters.  Of course they are all very anxious that the government that in most circumstances should be re-elected is in serious danger of being turfed out after one term. and that we are going back to the Howard years, in fact even worse with Tony Abbott. However some of them have almost tipped over and have become a bit obsessive.   There was an American political analysts on Lateline that talked about ‘Horse Race Elections’ where the election is seen as a horse race where a candidate is ahead at one moment and behind the next.

Well at Pollbludger is more like a ‘two flies on the wall’ election.   Every nuance, every statement is seen as a triumph or a disaster.  For instance one contributor wrote that Julia Gillard was going to lose the elections because she looked tired on the 7.30 Report.  I mean, really.

Of course one of the favourite complaints is the media, and to some extent I agree with them.  The media overall has been quite negative towards the Government.  I am not sure why. Whether they felt that Labor was too ahead and they felt that the Liberals were the underdog, or perhaps they were treated badly by Kevin Rudd’s staff.   Of course anyone with a passing interest in political coverage would know that News Limited, and especially ‘The Australian’ has been very anti Labor for some time now, so there shouldn’t be any surprises there.  What is disappointing however is how the ABC has basically used the narrative from ‘The Australian’ to frame its own coverage.

This feeling is also shared by others.  Bernard Keane writes on Crikey.

With the battle to attack the cash handouts lost, The Australian, including some of its Press Gallery journalists, began a dishonest campaign against the education component of the stimulus packages, a campaign that has twice now, once by the ANAO, and a second time last week in the first Orgill report, been comprehensively and systematically discredited by independent analyses. The ABC has enthusiastically backed up News Ltd in this campaign, with its “Online Investigations Unit” misrepresenting the ANAO report.

Again speculation is rife on why the ABC has been behaving this way.  Is it because it tries to shake the belief that it has an inherent Labor bias?  Or has Howard finally been successful in turning the ABC as Liberal friendly acolyte of News Limited?

Reading the posts of some of Pollbludger contributors it seems to me that they are watching ABC News 24 and Sky News simultaneously while listening to ABC News Radio at the same time.  I do wonder whether this media overload does warp your sense of reality where a comment is seen as being monumentally against your side whether that’s true or not.  The fact is that most voters out there do not watch the media incessantly or have their votes swayed by small events.  They do look at policies and also make an assessment on whether a particular leader has the qualities to become a Prime Minister.

Whether most of them agree with you or not it’s another matter.

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I’d rather be at home watching Get Smart.

Anyone who has followed a football team (whatever code) may have felt that feeling. It’s an important final (even a Grand Final) there has been the build up, the hype. Your team was even built as the favourite the match starts. Your team makes some mistakes and the opposition gets ahead. Don’t worry you say to yourself, it’s early days yet plenty of time, you are good enough to get back and surge ahead.

But slowly and surely things are not going to plan. The other team capitalises on your team’s mistakes and your tries to cling on. In Australian Football ther other team outscores yours, and yours kicks some but not enough. In Association football the opposition has scored early and it’s defending well and now in your desperation to even the scores you are risking to go further behind. And anyway, more alarmingly your teams seems to be jinxed, everything it tries fails while the other team full of confidence seems to surge ahead.

So in both codes you are just after half time and it dawns on you that your team is not going to win this match. In fact it mysery seeing your team make mistake after mistake while the other gets more goal scoring opportunity. The performance of your team and the cheering of the opposition’s fans gets you down. You want to have it finished. When I was watching the AFL with a friend and our team was performing badly he would shout “I’d rather be at home watching Get Smart!” (These were the times where most football matches were played on Saturday afternoon and Channel 7 would show old episodes of Get Smart at 4 pm).

You may leave but in some way you feel some sort of loyalty to your team to watch it to the bitter end. Seeing them walking off in triumph as their team song blares off the speakers or even hanging around for them to get the winner’s trophy.

That’s the feeling I get watching this election campaign. Nothing seems to go well for Labor. Of course unfortunately this is mostly self inflicted. Despite the perceived unpopularity of Rudd as the Prime Minister he would have at least had the advantage of incumbency as a first term government, something lost when the Labor Party dumped him.

But apart for the leaks you can see today papers why the ALP team is behind. As someone wrote the picture of Gilliard and Rudd together looks like they are eating a lemon salad. And even Mark Latham encounter with Gilliard is portrayed as Labor ‘self inflicting’, which is interesting as Latham has been on the outer for years and not part of the ALP, and he did that as part of him being a Channel 9 journalist. I reckon that if he tried that stunt on Rudd (if he dared) it would have been seen as a poor rejected opposition leader being pathetic. But that’s the narrative for Labor in this campaign.

So this while this campaign will be used in politics courses in the future as an example of what not to do in an election, it seems that we are inevitably going to see the equivalent of the opposing team winning the trophy. A beaming Tony Abbott amongst cheering Liberals and their media supporters (Bolt, Ackerman etc.) claiming victory in a couple of weeks. In the meantime those of us who don’t want Abbott to be prime minister will have to endure more goals, more defensive blunders and more opportunities for the opposition team until then.

I wish I could be home watching Get Smart instead.

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Dear Labor Party leaker, you may be angry…but think about the rest of us.

If you watched Q&A last Monday you would have seen Tom Switzer, editor of The Spectator Australian saying that Rudd will leak and leak and leak until any prospects of a Gilliard Prime Ministership is all but destroyed.

I don’t know whether Kevin Rudd would be so vengeful to do this. I don’t think he would be. Maybe some of his staffer may be though. Well I have a message for that leaker.

I know that you may have been mightily pissed off at losing a job because of Party machinations. I have been retrenched twice and I know it’s not fun. And it’s normal to think how to get back at people that may have betrayed you.

However this is not just about you I am afraid. By damaging Julia you are likely to help Tony Abbott become Prime Minister. Julia is not fantastic when it comes to progressive policies, but she’s damn better than Tony any day.

Maybe you think that you and your leader may get back to the top if Julia loses. I wouldn’t count on it as conservative governments are very good in staying in power when they get it. But more importantly, why, if you work on the more ‘left’ side of politics inflict Tony Abbott on the rest us because you are pissed off? Don’t you think that maybe there are things that are more important than getting back at people?

This is no movie when betrayed heroes slain their enemies but in the process he goes down with them, this is serious.

So take a breath, think about karma and stop damaging Julia.

Thanks

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